The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain stable operation in 2023

Recently, the China Nonferrous Metals Association held a press conference to introduce the economic operation of the non-ferrous metal industry in 2022. It was shown that in 2022, China's non-ferrous industry showed a stable and upward trend, showing a stable and positive overall trend. It is expected that the overall production of non-ferrous metal industry will maintain stable operation in 2023.
Preliminary statistics show that in 2022, the production of ten commonly used non-ferrous metals in China was 67.743 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% based on comparable standards. Among them, the production of refined copper was 110.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; The production of raw aluminum reached 40.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The amount of six types of concentrate metals reached 6.702 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The production of alumina reached 81.862 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The industrial added value of non ferrous metal enterprises on the scale increased by 5.2% compared to the previous year, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the national industrial added value growth.
The import of raw materials for copper and aluminum mines and the export of aluminum materials have reached a new historical high. According to customs data statistics, the total import and export trade of non-ferrous metals (including gold) in 2022 reached 327.33 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. The physical import volume of copper concentrate in China was 25.271 million tons, an increase of 8.0% compared to the previous year; The import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials was 5.871 million tons, an increase of 6.2% compared to the previous year; The import volume of bauxite is 125 million tons, an increase of 16.9% compared to the previous year. In 2022, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in China reached 6.604 million tons, an increase of 17.6% compared to the previous year; The export volume reached $26 billion, an increase of 33.7% compared to the previous year, and the growth rate was 16.1 percentage points higher than the increase in export volume. In 2022, the export volume of rare earths reached 49000 tons, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the previous year; The export volume reached 1.06 billion US dollars, an increase of 62.8% compared to the previous year, with a growth rate 63.2 percentage points higher than the export volume growth rate. This is the first time that the trend of volume reduction and increase has been achieved.
The prices of major non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc in the domestic spot market are basically operating within a reasonable range. In 2022, the average price of copper in the domestic spot market was 67470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5% compared to the previous year; The average price of aluminum in the domestic spot market is 20006 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.6% compared to the previous year; The average price of lead in the domestic spot market is 15260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year; The average price of zinc in the domestic spot market is 25154 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.4% compared to the previous year; The average price of industrial silicon in the domestic spot market is 20125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.5% compared to the previous year. However, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has seen a significant increase in multiples, with an average price of 466400 yuan/ton in the domestic spot market, an increase of 254.7% compared to the previous year.
Regarding the development trend of non-ferrous metals in 2023, Chen Xuesen, Vice President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated that a series of stable growth policies such as expanding domestic demand and stabilizing real estate introduced by the country in 2023 will gradually become effective, supporting the stable operation of the non-ferrous metals industry. For example, the downward trend of the real estate industry is expected to ease, and the demand for aluminum materials in industries such as construction and home appliances, especially the contraction of demand for building aluminum profiles, will improve. In addition, with the growth of demand for aluminum materials in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic, the demand for aluminum materials in China is expected to stabilize in 2023.
Although it is expected that the overall production of the non-ferrous metal industry will remain stable in 2023, Chen Xuesen also reminds enterprises to do a good job in anticipatory management, be vigilant against unexpected risks, reasonably use cash tools to hedge risks, and adjust procurement and production plans in a timely manner. He stated that for the Chinese non-ferrous metal industry, changes in the external environment have a significant impact on the security and stability of the domestic supply chain. Therefore, the stability of global non-ferrous metal mine production and raw material supply may still be affected by risk events, and the stable operation of domestic supply side will also face phased and structural impacts, with significant fluctuations in processing fees and prices.